Haydock · 12:45

Pertemps Network Long Distance Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip3m½f

GoingGood

Field15 runners

ClassClass 2

Race detail

Eagle Fang rates as the value NAP at 21% fair chance versus 11.2% market probability (+36.8% EV). Serious Chat also shows a positive long-price edge. Price is shorter than the model makes it.

12:45 1:15 1:48 2:30 3:05 3:40 4:15

Slims Favourite 90%

Haydock · 12:45

Eagle Fang

11/2

+36.8% EV +9.8% Edge Model 21.1% vs Market 11.2%

Slims Outsider 90%

Haydock · 12:45

Serious Chat

15/2

+84.4% EV +13.1% Edge Model 21.7% vs Market 8.6%

Value Thesis +36.8% EV

Eagle Fang

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Recent form profile is a major positive
Current price still underrates the chance
14-day trainer form is strong

Market Pressure Playable Race

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
Serious Chat carries 3 upside triggers.
Available race evidence is 85% complete.

Race Insight

Eagle Fang

Model vs Market 21.1% vs 11.2%

Expected Value +36.8%

Confidence 90%

Data Completeness 85%

Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Recent form profile is a major positive
Current price still underrates the chance
14-day trainer form is strong

Favourite Vulnerability

Market Pressure

Market Efficiency 0%

Outsider Triggers 3

Race State Playable

Outsider EV +84.4%

Eagle Fang rates as the value NAP at 21% fair chance versus 11.2% market probability (+36.8% EV). Serious Chat also shows a positive long-price edge. Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Why the market may be wrong

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Full Runner List Back to board

Eagle Fang Slims Favourite

Philip Byrnes William Durkan

/1572- Draw 0 OR 145 RPR 145 TS 136 +36.8% EV +9.8% Edge Data 73%

11/2

9.4 score

Harbour Lake

Tom Bellamy Alan King

/1P46- Draw 0 OR 141 RPR 147 TS 142 +-54.9% EV +-2.5% Edge Data 73%

10/1

6.5 score

Deep Cave

Jack Tudor Christian Williams

1150P- Draw 0 OR 135 RPR 141 TS 103 +-55.1% EV +-2.6% Edge Data 64%

10/1

6.5 score

Serious Chat Slims Outsider

Theo Gillard Donald McCain

51721- Draw 0 OR 132 RPR 144 TS 121 +84.4% EV +13.1% Edge Data 91%

15/2

9.5 score

La Pinsonniere

Nico de Boinville Nicky Henderson

2/332- Draw 0 OR 130 RPR 145 TS 133 +0.8% EV +3.3% Edge Data 91%

15/2

8.2 score

Bold Endeavour

James Bowen Nicky Henderson

P/37P- Draw 0 OR 128 RPR 145 TS 133 +-81.2% EV +-4.2% Edge Data 82%

12/1

5.1 score

Matty's Getaway

Ciaran Gethings Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls

/3412- Draw 0 OR 128 RPR 145 TS 132 +-34.1% EV +-0.7% Edge Data 82%

9/1

7.2 score

Walking On Air

Richie McLernon Faye Bramley

83P2F- Draw 0 OR 127 +-49.5% EV +-0.9% Edge Data 82%

25/1

5.4 score

Moon d'Orange

Callum Pritchard John C McConnell

67037- Draw 0 OR 125 RPR 153 TS 121 +-80.8% EV +-2.6% Edge Data 91%

20/1

4.6 score

Lord Snootie

Jonathan Burke Christian Williams

/0P23- Draw 0 OR 123 RPR 146 TS 121 +-62.0% EV +-3.5% Edge Data 91%

9/1

6.3 score

Al Sayah

Sam Twiston-Davies Neil Mulholland

23441- Draw 0 OR 122 RPR 148 TS 139 +4.1% EV +2.1% Edge Data 82%

14/1

7.3 score

Sea The Clouds

Leah Noreci(10) James Moffatt

P41P9- Draw 0 OR 121 RPR 146 TS 111 +-41.3% EV +-0.4% Edge Data 64%

40/1

5.1 score

Tranquil Sea

Harry Skelton Dan Skelton

84801- Draw 0 OR 121 RPR 144 TS 135 +-57.0% EV +-6.0% Edge Data 82%

4/1

7.6 score

Flying Fortune

Brendan Powell Mickey Bowen

1/494- Draw 0 OR 121 RPR 144 TS 115 +-83.5% EV +-3.8% Edge Data 82%

14/1

4.8 score

Gold For Alec

Ned Fox(3) Tom Symonds

8PP31- Draw 0 OR 119 RPR 141 TS 114 +-42.1% EV +-1.2% Edge Data 82%

12/1

6.6 score

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