Haydock · 1:48

Pertemps Network 'Junior' National Hunt Flat Race (GBB Race)

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip1m7½f

GoingGood

Field10 runners

ClassClass 3

Race detail

Running Happy rates as the value NAP at 35.4% fair chance versus 10.6% market probability (+165.6% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it; going fit is weaker than the market suggests.

12:45 1:15 1:48 2:30 3:05 3:40 4:15

Slims Favourite 88%

Haydock · 1:48

Running Happy

13/2

+165.6% EV +24.8% Edge Model 35.4% vs Market 10.6%

Slims Outsider 88%

No pick published yet.

Value Thesis +165.6% EV

Running Happy

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

Recent form profile is a major positive
Today’s trip looks ideal
Ground conditions suit the selection
14-day trainer form is strong

Market Pressure No Bet

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

Price is shorter than the model makes it; going fit is weaker than the market suggests.

Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
Available race evidence is 70% complete.

Race Insight

Running Happy

Model vs Market 35.4% vs 10.6%

Expected Value +165.6%

Confidence 88%

Data Completeness 70%

Recent form profile is a major positive
Today’s trip looks ideal
Ground conditions suit the selection
14-day trainer form is strong

Favourite Vulnerability

Stand Aside

Market Efficiency 0%

Outsider Triggers N/A

Race State No Bet

Outsider EV N/A

Running Happy rates as the value NAP at 35.4% fair chance versus 10.6% market probability (+165.6% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it; going fit is weaker than the market suggests.

Why the market may be wrong

Price is shorter than the model makes it; going fit is weaker than the market suggests.

Full Runner List Back to board

Running Happy Slims Favourite

Benjamin Macey(5) Seamus Mullins

1- Draw 0 RPR 91 TS 58 +165.6% EV +24.8% Edge Data 82%

13/2

14.1 score

Aribidia

Tom Bellamy Alan King

53- Draw 0 RPR 107 TS 105 +-35.3% EV +-3.0% Edge Data 82%

4/1

11.2 score

Bold Acclaim

Beau Morgan(5) Tom Weston

Draw 0 +-31.9% EV +-0.7% Edge Data 46%

16/1

8.5 score

Magic Feld

Harry Skelton Tom Weston

Draw 0 +-71.0% EV +-11.3% Edge Data 46%

7/2

9.5 score

Mister Dam

Jack Tudor Christian Williams

Draw 0 +25.0% EV +2.2% Edge Data 46%

20/1

9.4 score

Plan De Stan

Ned Fox(3) Tom Symonds

22- Draw 0 RPR 110 TS 95 +-64.0% EV +-10.9% Edge Data 82%

3/1

10.3 score

Sevenkingsmustdie

Philip Armson(3) Alan King

6- Draw 0 RPR 95 TS 89 +-72.4% EV +-3.5% Edge Data 82%

14/1

7.2 score

Sodeto

James Bowen John David Riches

Draw 0 +65.8% EV +4.1% Edge Data 46%

20/1

10.0 score

St Gabriel

Nico de Boinville Nicky Henderson

Draw 0 +-45.3% EV +-5.0% Edge Data 46%

4/1

10.7 score

You Be Lucky Jean

Richie McLernon Micky Hammond

Draw 0 +89.9% EV +3.2% Edge Data 46%

33/1

9.2 score

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