Haydock · 3:05

Pertemps Network Handicap

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip1m

GoingGood

Field10 runners

ClassClass 4

Race detail

Silver State rates as the value NAP at 34.7% fair chance versus 19.8% market probability (+38.7% EV).

12:45 1:15 1:48 2:30 3:05 3:40 4:15

Slims Favourite 90%

Haydock · 3:05

Silver State

3/1

+38.7% EV +14.8% Edge Model 34.7% vs Market 19.8%

Slims Outsider 90%

No pick published yet.

Value Thesis +38.7% EV

Silver State

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

Recent form profile is a major positive
Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Today’s trip looks ideal
Current price still underrates the chance

Market Pressure Playable Race

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

The market still matters, but the aim is to find where price and reality have drifted apart.

Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
Available race evidence is 70% complete.

Race Insight

Silver State

Model vs Market 34.7% vs 19.8%

Expected Value +38.7%

Confidence 90%

Data Completeness 70%

Recent form profile is a major positive
Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Today’s trip looks ideal
Current price still underrates the chance

Favourite Vulnerability

Market Pressure

Market Efficiency 0%

Outsider Triggers N/A

Race State Playable

Outsider EV N/A

Silver State rates as the value NAP at 34.7% fair chance versus 19.8% market probability (+38.7% EV).

Full Runner List Back to board

Silver State Slims Favourite

Rose Dawes(5) Jack Channon

113311 Draw 8 OR 85 RPR 92 TS 81 +38.7% EV +14.8% Edge Data 73%

3/1

14.4 score

Applesandpears

Sam James Edward Bethell

211- Draw 10 OR 84 RPR 90 TS 45 +-4.2% EV +3.0% Edge Data 64%

9/2

12.3 score

Harlequin Breeze

Alexandra Egan(7) Jane Chapple-Hyam

952-0 Draw 7 OR 84 RPR 91 TS 68 +-33.5% EV +-0.8% Edge Data 73%

16/1

8.8 score

Jeddaal

Ashley Lewis(5) Ed Walker

2245-1 Draw 5 OR 83 RPR 91 TS 78 +0.6% EV +3.5% Edge Data 73%

5/1

12.2 score

Dodge City

Kevin Stott Brian Meehan

3231-7 Draw 6 OR 82 RPR 90 TS 74 +-42.1% EV +-1.6% Edge Data 64%

12/1

9.0 score

Blue To Blue

Billy Garritty Ruth Jefferson

4112-9 Draw 1 OR 82 RPR 90 TS 88 +-74.3% EV +-3.6% Edge Data 82%

14/1

7.3 score

Mohaaraj

Finley Marsh Richard Hughes

4-1 Draw 3 OR 80 RPR 88 +-34.9% EV +-2.2% Edge Data 64%

11/2

10.9 score

Sea The Power

Dale Swift Seb Spencer

3716- Draw 2 OR 80 RPR 95 TS 65 +-57.0% EV +-1.7% Edge Data 64%

20/1

7.6 score

Aerial Silk

Cieren Fallon David Menuisier

434- Draw 4 OR 73 RPR 89 TS 81 +-84.4% EV +-8.0% Edge Data 64%

7/1

7.5 score

Delinquent

David Allan K R Burke

64-531 Draw 9 OR 72 RPR 93 TS 76 +-47.0% EV +-3.5% Edge Data 73%

13/2

10.0 score

Need The Rest Of The Board?

Slims Pickins is most useful when you can move from this single-race view back to the wider board, compare races quickly, and decide where the edge is strongest.

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