Haydock · 3:40

Pertemps Network Spring Trophy Stakes (Listed Race)

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip7f

GoingGood

Field11 runners

ClassClass 1

Race detail

Poet Master rates as the value NAP at 19.2% fair chance versus 10.8% market probability (+53.4% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.

12:45 1:15 1:48 2:30 3:05 3:40 4:15

Slims Favourite 68%

Haydock · 3:40

Poet Master

7/1

+53.4% EV +8.4% Edge Model 19.2% vs Market 10.8%

Slims Outsider 68%

No pick published yet.

Value Thesis +53.4% EV

Poet Master

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

Recent form profile is a major positive
Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Recent run was better than the finishing position
Current price still underrates the chance

Market Pressure Playable Race

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
Available race evidence is 76% complete.

Race Insight

Poet Master

Model vs Market 19.2% vs 10.8%

Expected Value +53.4%

Confidence 68%

Data Completeness 76%

Recent form profile is a major positive
Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Recent run was better than the finishing position
Current price still underrates the chance

Favourite Vulnerability

Market Pressure

Market Efficiency 0%

Outsider Triggers N/A

Race State Playable

Outsider EV N/A

Poet Master rates as the value NAP at 19.2% fair chance versus 10.8% market probability (+53.4% EV). Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Why the market may be wrong

Price is shorter than the model makes it.

Full Runner List Back to board

Audience

Mark Winn David O'Meara

5-3000 Draw 7 OR 104 RPR 115 TS 96 +4.5% EV +0.6% Edge Data 64%

28/1

7.6 score

Balmacara

Callum Hutchinson Eve Johnson Houghton

30200- Draw 8 OR 103 RPR 110 TS 95 +-41.2% EV +-1.1% Edge Data 64%

25/1

6.8 score

Beauty Destiny

Ryan Sexton Edward Bethell

1110-6 Draw 11 OR 99 RPR 87 +182.0% EV +3.8% Edge Data 64%

50/1

8.4 score

Heathcliff

Ross Coakley James Fanshawe

3-3124 Draw 6 OR 105 RPR 112 +109.7% EV +5.9% Edge Data 64%

20/1

9.6 score

Holguin

Faleh Bughenaim Hamad Al Jehani

/9331- Draw 9 OR 110 RPR 117 TS 94 +-21.8% EV +-1.1% Edge Data 64%

6/1

9.8 score

Lake Forest

Cieren Fallon William Haggas

62207- Draw 4 OR 115 RPR 123 TS 93 +-61.2% EV +-16.5% Edge Data 64%

15/8

10.3 score

Myal

David Allan Steph Hollinshead

002-51 Draw 2 OR 107 RPR 114 TS 91 +46.4% EV +6.7% Edge Data 82%

8/1

10.7 score

Palmar Bay

Rossa Ryan Ralph Beckett

1964-4 Draw 10 OR 103 RPR 110 TS 91 +23.4% EV +2.2% Edge Data 64%

16/1

8.9 score

Poet Master Slims Favourite

Sam James K R Burke

/922-2 Draw 3 OR 112 RPR 116 TS 86 +53.4% EV +8.4% Edge Data 82%

7/1

11.1 score

Release The Storm

Kevin Stott Brian Meehan

11- Draw 1 OR 91 RPR 95 TS 62 +-27.6% EV +-0.7% Edge Data 64%

18/1

7.7 score

Ten Bob Tony

Ashley Lewis(5) Ed Walker

1830-4 Draw 5 OR 111 RPR 119 TS 89 +-58.9% EV +-8.2% Edge Data 73%

9/2

9.0 score

Need The Rest Of The Board?

Slims Pickins is most useful when you can move from this single-race view back to the wider board, compare races quickly, and decide where the edge is strongest.

Back To Today’s Picks Membership