Haydock · 1:15

Pertemps Network Swinton Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race)

Single-race breakdown with model vs market, value edge, confidence, and the reasons Slims Pickins is leaning in or stepping out.

Trip1m7½f

GoingGood

Field17 runners

ClassClass 1

Race detail

Indemnity rates as the value NAP at 24.4% fair chance versus 11.3% market probability (+83.4% EV). Laafi also shows a positive long-price edge. Price is shorter than the model makes it; trip is not ideal.

12:45 1:15 1:48 2:30 3:05 3:40 4:15

Slims Favourite 90%

Haydock · 1:15

Indemnity

13/2

+83.4% EV +13.2% Edge Model 24.5% vs Market 11.3%

Slims Outsider 90%

Haydock · 1:15

Laafi

37/2

+211.3% EV +11.6% Edge Model 16.0% vs Market 4.3%

Value Thesis +83.4% EV

Indemnity

The main play combines fair-price edge, suitability for conditions, and enough confidence to justify involvement.

Recent form profile is a major positive
Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Today’s trip looks ideal
Current price still underrates the chance

Market Pressure No Bet

Why The Favourite Can Be Opposed

Price is shorter than the model makes it; trip is not ideal.

Market efficiency is running at 0%, so edge is still available if the reasoning is specific enough.
Laafi carries 4 upside triggers.
Available race evidence is 82% complete.

Race Insight

Indemnity

Model vs Market 24.5% vs 11.3%

Expected Value +83.4%

Confidence 90%

Data Completeness 82%

Recent form profile is a major positive
Ratings stack up strongly against this field
Today’s trip looks ideal
Current price still underrates the chance

Favourite Vulnerability

Stand Aside

Market Efficiency 0%

Outsider Triggers 4

Race State No Bet

Outsider EV +211.3%

Why the market may be wrong

Price is shorter than the model makes it; trip is not ideal.

Full Runner List Back to board

Laafi Slims Outsider

Philip Byrnes William Durkan

/0551D- Draw 0 OR 141 RPR 138 TS 129 +211.3% EV +11.6% Edge Data 82%

37/2

7.8 score

Alnilam

James Bowen Olly Murphy

1P43P- Draw 0 OR 137 RPR 131 TS 119 +31.6% EV +1.2% Edge Data 73%

40/1

5.4 score

Bucephalus

Harriet Tucker(7) Neil Mulholland

42P13- Draw 0 OR 135 RPR 141 TS 128 +162.2% EV +6.6% Edge Data 73%

25/1

7.0 score

Indemnity Slims Favourite

Jonathan Burke Emma Lavelle

12341- Draw 0 OR 134 RPR 140 TS 126 +83.4% EV +13.2% Edge Data 91%

13/2

8.6 score

Gibbs Island

Stan Sheppard Tom Lacey

10577- Draw 0 OR 133 RPR 141 TS 121 +-79.8% EV +-10.7% Edge Data 64%

5/1

5.5 score

Tellherthename

Harry Skelton Dan Skelton

P5/30- Draw 0 OR 133 RPR 139 TS 119 +-76.5% EV +-13.5% Edge Data 73%

7/2

6.1 score

Helnwein

Tom Bellamy Alan King

2252F- Draw 0 OR 132 RPR 143 TS 131 +-52.3% EV +-2.2% Edge Data 91%

15/1

5.3 score

Hamlet's Night

Brendan Powell James Owen

12205- Draw 0 OR 130 RPR 141 TS 129 +-54.5% EV +-2.0% Edge Data 91%

37/2

5.1 score

Moon Chime

Nick Slatter(3) David Killahena & Graeme McPherson

B/199- Draw 0 OR 129 RPR 144 TS 133 +-28.3% EV +-0.4% Edge Data 73%

33/1

4.9 score

Dance And Glance

Sam Twiston-Davies Anthony Honeyball

41251- Draw 0 OR 126 RPR 139 TS 125 +-41.0% EV +-3.0% Edge Data 73%

15/2

6.5 score

Bubble Dubi

Charlie Hammond Stuart Edmunds

1/18P- Draw 0 OR 125 RPR 144 TS 139 +47.8% EV +1.2% Edge Data 64%

50/1

5.3 score

No Ordinary Joe

Richie McLernon Faye Bramley

50761- Draw 0 OR 125 RPR 140 TS 125 +-36.8% EV +-1.1% Edge Data 82%

37/2

5.4 score

Star Of Guiting

Theo Gillard Ewan Whillans

11P58- Draw 0 OR 121 RPR 144 TS 133 +-63.7% EV +-1.7% Edge Data 73%

27/1

4.4 score

Mr McLoughlan

Jack Tudor Jack Jones

81736- Draw 0 OR 120 RPR 144 TS 131 +-33.8% EV +-0.8% Edge Data 73%

22/1

5.3 score

Magna Victor

Ciaran Gethings Alastair Ralph

/4113- Draw 0 OR 117 RPR 143 TS 130 +23.6% EV +1.2% Edge Data 73%

33/1

5.6 score

Frontier Prince

Jack Hogan Fergal O'Brien

35334- Draw 0 OR 116 RPR 142 TS 118 +-42.1% EV +-1.2% Edge Data 64%

22/1

5.1 score

Made U Blush

Tristan Durrell Dan Skelton

3112- Draw 0 OR 121 RPR 138 TS 106 +10.0% EV +1.7% Edge Data 91%

14/1

6.6 score

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